Elon Musk and the future of humanity

The future is not written

Gloom is all around us. The world is going to hell; we have several conflict points representing serious dangers; there are a few possible New World Orders emerging, either of which could be good or bad, depending on how you see them.

The Western World may lose its significance and its leading role that most of their leaders are taking for granted. The USA may go bankrupt, the EU may fall apart, there is a possibility of several expanding wars with even the possibility of a nuclear one; and these are just the political uncertainties.

The economies of the Western world are in a bad shape. Unsustainable spending and debt; inflationary monetary policy, impossible to meet financial obligations, real estate and stock market bubbles, growing reliance on social assistance, growing immigration, growing crime rates, aging population, collapsing birth rates and we could go on.

Disruptive technologies will destroy jobs, make many people unemployable, while Artificial General Intelligence may make us completely irrelevant. Disruption will affect lawyers and many professionals just as much as assembly line workers.

The future does not seem to be bright, yet there are reasons to be optimistic. Technological innovation is advancing at an unprecedented rate. We have an ever-expanding vision of what science is, material sciences are going through a real revolution, medical science is in the process of understanding the working of our bodies on the level of molecular processes; mechanical engineering and design is advancing with the help of narrow AI.

We are learning how to harness energy from an ever-growing number of possible sources; we know how to re-green the Sahara; reforest barren landscapes and restore soil quality. We know how to grow food ANYWHERE - given that we have enough energy – to do so.

We could be standing at the threshold of unprecedented human flourishing and well being. But which way will it go and what does the direction depends on?

Maybe we can look at Elon Musk for the answer. No, I don’t think that he has the answer, going multiplanetary is definitely not it. I see the answer in what he is doing.

At some point I realized that he represents two seemingly contradictory trends in his businesses.
One toward decentralization, the other toward centralization. As I was trying to resolve this apparent contradiction, it dawned on me that they represent two sides of the same thing: independence.

The most important element of his way of running his businesses is the centralization of control. He wants to minimize, as much as he can, his dependence on outside sources. He wants to manufacture his own batteries with the design of the machines making them. No, wait: He wants to design the batteries too. No, wait: he wants to research the chemistry as well. No, wait: since lithium is expensive and problem-ridden to mine, he wants to mine his own lithium as well. No, wait: He wants to design his own way to mine lithium as well.

Tesla needs lots of fast computers, so it designed its own computers, and the chips in them. Its AI programs were created in-house. they were trained with information from thousands of drivers and millions of hours. 

You get the point…. It is all about the centralization of the decision-making power concerning the business, which is seen as essential to the self reliance and independence of the business.

The same approach is used in any and every one of his businesses. Why? Because that is the only way to control cost and design. Having full control of the process and every part of it (down to material science) is the only economic way to provide continuous improvements to the products. He even said that much in different interviews and speeches.

The other aspect is the products themselves. The solar roof and the Powerwall can give its users independence from the grid. That is decentralizing.
The Tesla cars represent a form of independence as well.
You can charge your car anywhere, where you can find electricity, generated from any source. Even though it does not look like it yet, once the electrification revolution will reach a certain point, we will not have to rely on gasoline and refineries or the vagaries of geopolitical powers for its price.
Robo-cabs will provide the independence of mobility for a reasonable price.
Skylink is decentralized independence from the physical network.   

If I could have a conversation with Elon Musk, my first question would be about nuclear energy.
SMRs could provide his factories with complete energy independence. Whatever problems SMRs still have, are engineering problems, exactly the kind that his teams are so good at solving.
Nuclear is not a competition to solar. They would be perfect for the Gigafactories.

The centralization of control over business decisions and the making of products that help their users to gain decision making power, are about the same thing: INDEPENDENCE.

This is a trend that can be seen in many places. An ever-growing number of supermarkets now have their own butcher-shops and bakeries. Some even have their own vertical farms for fresh herbs and salads. (A Kimbal Musk business). They are all about control and independence. Elon Musk is just the most obvious example.

China is doing he same thing. Vertical integration in every field where it is possible.

Everything in politics today is pushing us toward ever more centralized systems, while everything in science, technology and economic development is pushing us in the opposite direction.

The question is: which one will prevail? Where do we stand?
Do we embrace and demand ever increasing dependence on ever more centralized powers or shall we start fighting for our independence?
When I say ‘fighting’, I do not mean physical or even political fights, but a step-by-step fight for independence in, and control of our lives. Getting free of debt, free of the dependence on government services.

I hope I don’t have to tell you where I stand on the issue.
Distributed decision making means personal freedom and empowerment, while
Centralized decision making means slow degradation into a dependent, dystopian future.

This fight is quickly becoming the defining issue of our times. Elon Musk is showing the right way, taking full control of every aspect of his business, while helping you with products to do the same in some aspects of your life.

Elon Musk represent the positive aspects of our zeitgeist. Can his way succeed?
I just watched “Return to Space” at the end of which Elon says:

“We should think more about what’s the future we want? What has the happy ending?
For me, it’s, you know, making sure we become a spacefaring civilization.
But it’s very important to appreciate that this is not inevitable.
People are just mistaken when they think that technology just automatically improves.
It does not automatically improve.
If you look at great civilizations, like ancient Egypt, and they were able to make the pyramids, and they forgot how to do that. And the Romans, they built these incredible aqueducts. And they forgot how to do it.
In 1969, we were able to send somebody to the moon, and we forgot how to do that

The window of opportunity is open right now to make life multi-planetary.
But we cannot count on it being open for a long time. We need to take advantage of that window while it is open.”

Elon is absolutely right saying that his dream is not inevitable and that technology does not automatically improve, but he is wrong not asking the question what may close the window. He is wrong not seeing the importance of his other innovations, especially the aspects I pointed to above.

The civilizations he mentioned did not forget, they just collapsed, they ceased to exist. We are living in a collapsing civilization without much of a clue on how to save it.
“We should think more about what’s the future we want. What has the happy ending?”

I like Musk’s kitchen sink approach, taking full control of his own businesses and helping us to gain more independence in ours.
That could be and should be the future of industrial production. What stands in the way, is politics.

Let’s talk about that next.