Second thoughts about second thoughts
Still waiting for a hint of real changes
What do you do when you have second thoughts about your second thoughts?
How can you form a firm opinion on a subject with constantly shifting conditions and parameters?
In my very first post on the subject, The triple-U of free trade - I tried to show how unavoidably political the whole issue is.
In Second thoughts, I offered more examples and I gave a concession to the possibility that tariffs may become tools of trade liberalization.
The day after I posted it, I came across the following two videos:
I highly recommend watching both to get a better idea about the workings of tariffs.
This conversation with Jeffrey Sachs and the monologue of Peter Schiff are the reasons for this post.
The second reason is seeing the Trump plan unfold. It helped me to reevaluate my concessions.
The tariff situations is a total mess. Impulsive decision, no proper plan, no imagination, just some wishful thinking and knee-jerk reactions.
The idea of returning manufacturing jobs to America is a good one, but the reason why those jobs left in the first place is not the fault of the countries they ended up in. Pointing fingers at those countries will not get them back. Only favorable business conditions will do that.
What DOGE is doing is fantastic, but not even nearly enough. It is NOT getting rid of the deep state. It is NOT draining the swamp.
Cleaning the pigsty is one thing.
Dealing with the pigs and their trough is another.
Closing USAID and the Department of Education is going to get rid of a lot of corruption, and save a lot of money, but it will not create the kind of business environment that would entice businesses to repatriate. I used the stick and the carrot analogy in my previous post, but I can only see the stick so far.
The second Trump administration started with promises and a mandate to do fundamental changes. I was so impressed by the start that I took it for granted that more substantial changes will follow.
Not only the old wars in Ukraine and Gaza are still around, but new ones with Iran and China are looming.
There is no tax reform in sight, but there are big new taxes are coming in the form of tariffs.
Maybe the bigger changes are still coming. Maybe the President will address the joint houses and will be able to seduce the lawmakers to push meaningful reform through.
Maybe Trump will turn out to be a peace-maker and maybe he will embrace the multipolar new world order.
Maybe there will be a tax reform; getting rid of, simplifying or at least flattening the income tax.
Maybe the FED will be audited.
Maybe it is possible to kill 80% of all onerous regulations
Maybe it is possible to reform the welfare state
Maybe it is possible to reform patent laws
Maybe it is possible to pay off the national debt
Maybe the house and the Senate can be reformed. (term limits, campaign finance limits, etc.)
But I am not holding my breath. What I am increasingly certain of, is that tariffs alone will not do the job.
What do you think? What would be on the change on top of your list?
Let me give you my top three:
A super simplified 10-15% flat personal income tax starting on incomes over $25K; same for businesses. All guaranteed by law.
Radical patent reform
Privatizing social security
I can’t wait to see more ideas, so please comment.
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References
Trump Orders Department Of Education Closure: What Happens Next
"Whenever the people need a hero, we shall supply him." Albert Pike, 33rd Degree Freemason.
That's where I'm at with Donald.
Politicians have been 'talking about' a flat tax for 50 YEARS! It would put a lot of accountants, bookkeepers, financial advisors and tax prep companies out of business. When stating Trump isn't doing enough - fast enough - according to you - it is noteworthy that he hasn't even been in office 100 days!! The Tariff was calculated per Project 2025. The threat brought nearly EVERY COUNTRY to the negotiating table immediately! THAT is a success. I remember Ann Coulter screaming that Trump never built the Wall - and so that was all she saw. Maybe Trump hasn't hit all your particular agendas yet - but 100 days out of 1460 = 7%. Imagine if every employer expected everything done in 100 days...