Sleepwalking into techno-disruption

The threat and promise of complexity

Oct 30, 2024

In my introduction to this series: Sleepwalking into the future I named three areas of impending changes that we do not seem to be properly prepared for. I see them not only as unavoidable, but also as inseparable. They are feeding on and amplifying each other. Of the three, I consider this last one the most important and impactful.

I am NOT a luddite. I am a techno-optimist. I welcome changes, even the challenging ones. Difficulties and setbacks are unavoidable parts of significant changes.
The things that concern me are fuzzy visions, poorly thought-out plans, ulterior motives, shady and hidden interests, lack of consideration for predictable side-effects and ‘unintended’ consequences.
Giving no thought to them or having no idea how to handle them.
The changes we are facing are laden with such problems.
What I see the most is hype and jockeying for control and power within the existing frameworks.

The assumption

The assumption, as it is with geopolitical and societal changes, is that the fundamentals will NOT change.
That the labour market will adjust, that the technological changes will not change the market fundamentals or the system of taxation and the funding of the ever-growing government expenditures.
That the technological changes will only further empower the system as it is.

Reality

The most important change is not the industrial revolution but the economic and societal changes they foreshadow. Just think:

With an ever-increasing adoption of solar energy and battery storage, reliance on the centralized system will decrease.
With small modular nuclear reactors or geothermal generators, whole communities can be independent from large-scale distribution systems.
With an increased adoption of robotics, manufacturing will not have to chase after the cheapest labour markets on the planet.
With an increased adoption of robotics, the labour markets will change fundamentally.
Just think how many of these jobs will get affected:
With factory automation, (especially with robots) manufacturing jobs will go away.
With cheap energy and vertical farming, we’ll be less dependent on food transported from thousands of miles away.
With the localization of energy sources and manufacturing, the need for oversea transport will drop significantly. The only thing that can save it is the fact that its cost will also decrease significantly.

And these will be just the beginning. Countless number of jobs will be affected. Labor markets will change that will affect the way government levy and collect taxes.

The paradigm shift

The essence of the changes is not the 4^th industrial revolution, not AI, but changes I described in my post: Elon Musk and the future of humanity.

The most important changes are not the marvelous inventions (however marvelous they are), but the ways we are thinking about them: control and independence.
Just as Henry Ford revolutionized manufacturing with the assembly line, Elon Musk is heading a new revolution manufacturing with taking control of everything he can in the production process.
In a way, control over your own sphere of influence is independence.
Independence in manufacturing will mean freedom from the need for unskilled labour.
In a world of such ‘economic unit independence’ only two things matter: raw materials and knowledge.

The transfer of knowledge is practically costless. Manufacturing can happen anywhere. Labour will be cheaper and less relevant. Transportation will be cheaper and less relevant. Energy input will be cheaper and less relevant.

Data, information and knowledge are the most important commodities of this new industrial age.
Elon Musk likes to point out that his real products are not the cars, but the factory making them. Taking that one step further, we could say that the product is the culture of his ‘first principle thinking’ in manufacturing.

Technological advances are inherently deflationary and our political systems that are predicated on never-ending growth and inflation are not prepared to handle it.

All of these changes are pointing toward a system of decentralized industrialization.
All of these changes are predicated on decentralized decision making.
All of these changes are predicated on distributed knowledge that is in a never-ending flux of evolution.
All of them are on a collision course with political trends favouring centralized control and decision making.

Crypto and AI are great examples of this conflict.
Crypto, on the one hand has the blockchain aspect enabling unprecedented privacy AND transparent accountability, while on the other we have Central Bank Digital Currencies enabling total control over our lives.

Artificial intelligence is the most powerful tool to expand, extend and empower our knowledge, abilities and agencies on the one hand, while on the other hand (the wrong one), it can become a most powerful tool of manipulation and control of just about everything.

The role of the state in socialist/liberal/representative democracies is the redirection of resources and decision-making power from individuals and businesses to its various agencies.
As technology is changing toward more distributed models, the very role of the state in our lives will be threatened.

As with the other two subjects – geopolitical realignment and the break-down of the welfare state, all I can see is the kabuki theatre of partisan bickering with no proper understanding of the problems.

In my next post, I will make my own (admittedly partisan) position clear.

Stay with me.

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