Amongst many incalculable variables influencing the future, two stand out to me as fairly well defined: the nature of state legitimacy and the path of fiscal deterioration.
The West has come to rely for legitimacy entirely on competence. All other possible sources (divine ordination, nation, race, class) have fallen by the wayside. ‚Experts‘ are going to guide us to a better life. This system lacks any nod towards transcendence and is preoccupied with positive outcomes. Even climate change and net zero are sold in terms of real-world improvements (cheaper energy, new green jobs). There is an eschatological element to the climate cult but it’s not its major driving force.
At the same time the fiscal path in all major Western economies is set for disaster due to unfunded liabilities. The unfunded aspect means that these obligations are off book for the most part but no less real. They amount to around 6 times GDP in the US and Germany, even more in England and France, Italy and Spain are failed states for all practical purposes. At the same time there is neither political will or even possibility for any reform as it would destroy the ‚Expert‘ ethos (the last realistic time for sound reforms was around 2005 anyway).
It is unlikely that the fiscal disaster will result in a visible shock but rather in a prolonged deterioration of living standards, caused mostly by inflating the liabilities away. In this scenario the United States are well placed to fare better in a last man standing sort of way. Since the raison d‘être of the expert class is the production of good outcomes, the contrast between (relatively) good USA and bad EU will over time undermine and then destroy the ethos of the expert. My model here is East Germany the population of which was keenly aware of the relative success of their West German compatriots since most East Germans could receive West German television and its product advertisements. Communist eschatology didn’t survive the contrast. Likewise the dominance of American entertainment will put the ever-widening gap in living standards in sharp relief.
As to a timeline, 2030 is the point of no return for unfunded liabilities; add 15 years for the truth to sink in and by 2045 ‚expert‘ will have become a dirty word.
Thanks Zork.
Amongst many incalculable variables influencing the future, two stand out to me as fairly well defined: the nature of state legitimacy and the path of fiscal deterioration.
The West has come to rely for legitimacy entirely on competence. All other possible sources (divine ordination, nation, race, class) have fallen by the wayside. ‚Experts‘ are going to guide us to a better life. This system lacks any nod towards transcendence and is preoccupied with positive outcomes. Even climate change and net zero are sold in terms of real-world improvements (cheaper energy, new green jobs). There is an eschatological element to the climate cult but it’s not its major driving force.
At the same time the fiscal path in all major Western economies is set for disaster due to unfunded liabilities. The unfunded aspect means that these obligations are off book for the most part but no less real. They amount to around 6 times GDP in the US and Germany, even more in England and France, Italy and Spain are failed states for all practical purposes. At the same time there is neither political will or even possibility for any reform as it would destroy the ‚Expert‘ ethos (the last realistic time for sound reforms was around 2005 anyway).
It is unlikely that the fiscal disaster will result in a visible shock but rather in a prolonged deterioration of living standards, caused mostly by inflating the liabilities away. In this scenario the United States are well placed to fare better in a last man standing sort of way. Since the raison d‘être of the expert class is the production of good outcomes, the contrast between (relatively) good USA and bad EU will over time undermine and then destroy the ethos of the expert. My model here is East Germany the population of which was keenly aware of the relative success of their West German compatriots since most East Germans could receive West German television and its product advertisements. Communist eschatology didn’t survive the contrast. Likewise the dominance of American entertainment will put the ever-widening gap in living standards in sharp relief.
As to a timeline, 2030 is the point of no return for unfunded liabilities; add 15 years for the truth to sink in and by 2045 ‚expert‘ will have become a dirty word.